Sometimes I enjoy looking at statistics, like who’s winning the scoring race…. or seeing Jaroslav Halak on top of save % thus far.

I’m writing this not as a statistician or wanting to figure out formulas…. I’m writing this because when I’ve looked at certain stats as a fan, I was always struck with a first impression about the stat.

I thought I’d look at the plus/minus stat a little bit to see how teams these playoffs were shaping up and look at a few years past. Over several games the plus/minus stat can show in a general way how a team performs 5 on 5 and can also give a hint at which players are better offensively/defensively. Obviously it doesn’t give a true look at your best defensive or offensive player, because the stat itself is a bit of a balance between the goals scored while your on the ice for and against your team. So a higher scoring player may end up with a higher plus/minus stat then a better defensive player in some cases.

Basically, it’s a glimpse of how the team is doing 5 on 5 while each player is on the ice.

I thought I’d write a little blurb on this because I read a great article on the Corsi stat over at Lions in Winter. The article’s name is “Putting the Corsi in it’s place“. It’s a great read.

So every time I used to look at a team’s plus minus I had an impression it was (or should) be telling me who was the better team. Or who was the “winner”. Not necessarily so. At least in my opinion.

In regular season I believe a team can be lucky. In the playoffs I think the better team will win. I could open a can of worms with that statement for sure. But this is what I mean. I don’t mean by better team that it has the most skilled players (sometimes it may, sometimes it may not)…. simply put I think in the playoffs the team that will play “together” being opportunistic within a strategy to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses end up being the better team. 4,5,6,7 games in a row against the same team, you get to know the players habits, the team’s strengths and weaknesses quite well… you get to know how your opponent’s coaches  will try to counter your moves.

Luck disappears. Heart, work ethic, will to win, coach ability… these things begin to matter much more then 1 regular season game. It is quite different.

Here’s what the Habs stats focused on the plus/minus look like thus far.

Habs stats after 11 games in 2010 playoffs

Looking at these stats a couple of things come to mind right off the bat.

Hal Gill

I’m not at all surprised that Hal Gill is at +4 at 5 on 5. He’s been clogging up the shooting and passing lanes…. using his long reach to frustrate opponents so far.

Marc-Andre Bergeron

I’m not at all surprised that MA Bergeron is currently at -10 while 5 on 5. I’m sure I’m not the only one who’s seen Bergeron give up the puck on occasion. He also has a hard time to defense bigger forwards as they tend to bump him off the puck easily.

Where he is quite valuable is on the power play where he gets a fair bit of playing time.

Mike Cammalleri

I’m a bit surprised at his -3 but at first sight my impulse is to think “He’s scored 8 goals so opponents have scored 11 during that ice time” (without taking into consideration the assists)… well, not quite. That’s a small example of where things get a little murky. Cammalleri scored 3 of his goals on the power play, so that brings the numbers to his scoring 5 goals at 5 on 5 and opponents scored 8 during that ice time…. then again, with his 5 assists, how many of those points where on power play goals?

Stats can be fun. Ultimately the ones that count the most are the score at the end of the game, and the win/loss number during the series.

Then of course, it’s just plain numbers. Who were they paired with…etc.

Now for fun, let’s add in the plus/minus stats for both the Penguins and Capitals.

Washington Capitals

Capitals stats after 7 games in 2010 playoffs

Against the Washington Capitals I “feel” as though I’m looking at the team that won the series, or the “better” team. It certainly is reflective at a team’s strength at 5 on 5.

And again, just looking at the plus/minus in mind it gives me that impression. But what it doesn’t tell me is who won a game. It doesn’t tell me which team got penalized the most, which team were better on the penalty kill, which team had the best scoring opportunities…etc.

To be quite honest, looking at the plus/minus stats for the Capitals, I’m not surprised at all. They were the top scoring team in the league this year.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Penguins stats after 10 games in 2010 playoffs

When I look at the Penguins plus/minus numbers one thing does kind of surprise me. The thing that surprises me is Jordan Staal’s plus/minus number.

He lead the team this season with +19, and now is at the bottom with -5 in the playoffs. Staal is also regarded as a good defensive player.

I hadn’t watched all of the Ottawa/Pittsburgh series and I haven’t (and am not going to) dig into his pairings in that series.

I’m just surprised.

2008-2009 playoffs

2008-2009 playoff plus/minus leaders

The plus/minus leaders in 2008-2009 leave me with the impression that Detroit should have won… and I’m sure some will argue they should have…. as people do about any series.

I still like statistics and I really enjoy the work done over at En Attendant les Nordiques.

Today I try to go past that “first impression” that I get from certain statistics.

Like I mentioned earlier… 2 things ultimately matter. The score at the end of the game and the win/loss number in a series.

And there’s a slogan that I’ve kind of grown fond of. “Good teams find a way to win”.

Improbability doesn’t mean impossibility.

I found an article and thought it quite interesting. The writer of this article claims that the Caps eventually lost the series because of that goal that was not allowed. In fact, looking at the picture within the very article I’m drawn to Knuble’s skate positioned just in the crease… and if any of you saw the replay last night his skate did in fact go into the crease and obstruct the goaltender’s ability to move.

Knuble is quoted in the article as saying:

“That’s a violation that hasn’t been called all year,”

Well, unfortunately he’s partly right. I’ve seen many goals scored where a team was running the net. I remember one goal in particular where Price was basically pushed into the net while trying to grab the puck…. the puck sliding in with him. I think it may actually have been Ovechkin who had scored that goal. But because it wasn’t called everytime doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right call.

The Canadiens won 3 of 4 games in Washington. And they just as easily could have won game 2 were it not for a meltdown.

Here’s another interesting quote by the author of the article “Brad Watson is the referee who murdered the Caps’ playoff chances”.

With all due respect, I totally disagree. Blaming the referee like that is a cop out.

I’ve watched alot of hockey this year. I’ve missed very few Habs games and I’ve watched hours of other teams playing. There are calls in every game that are questionable. Just think back to game 6… 3 diving calls? Really? A little absurd. But, in the heat of the action the referees try to keep the control of the game… they don’t want things to get out of hand. And you’ll get a bad call.

But I still think that call on the goal was the right one. They showed the replays, they repeated what the rule states. There you have it.

Now, check out what the Capital’s owner Ted Leonsis had to say.. I’m sure he watched those same games that I and the writer of the aforementioned article watched.

“They played committed hockey, they sacrificed, and they out worked us. I have never seen better D and more blocked shots in a playoff series. I think they blocked as many shots as we took last night. Another stat I had never seen before.” – Ted Leonsis

“They took advantage of breaks and they scored on their power play opportunities. We didn’t.” – Ted Leonsis

For anyone who would like to read Mr Leonsis’s article, please do so by clicking here.

When it boils down to it, the Habs just seemed to want it that much more. They worked very hard at clogging passing and shooting lanes…. and really ramped up their penalty killing. I think the Capitals were really taken by surprise. And it’s been said before…. championships are won with defense…..

I think the author is quite correct when he says that “it’s a bitter pill to swallow” for the Capitals. But it’s much deeper then that one call in that one game.

The Canadiens did what they needed to do in order to win. Not in 1 game, not by chance or by luck…. but over 7 games they chased the puck in the corners, made simple plays to move the puck out of their zone, blocked too many shots to count, clogged the shooting and passing lanes….

Bottom line, I think Mr Leonsis’s evaluation was a bit more true then the author of the following article. After all, the Montreal Canadiens did win a 7 game series against the league’s best offensive team. I think they deserve a little credit….. don’t you?

A response to: The goal that should have been: Caps loss a fraud

Here’s what Sportsnet have to say about the Habs winning the Caps.

I’m not sure how to express it… but I’ll just say that this game 7 was intense! Very intense.

My wonderful little girl (Emily, aged 6) wanted to watch part of the game with me. So we cuddle up and watched some of the first period together. She asked me some questions about the 2 teams. After a little bit she wanted to lie down and before I knew it, she was asleep.

I’d also like to mention that there was a great live chat tonight and thanks to Steven Hindle (@StevenHindle , Capitals coverage) for inviting me to join in.

I was watching the game intensely. The Capitals seemed to push quite a bit to start the game. And in the second period, I was kind of surprised at how flat they came out. At one point I remember thinking that the Capitals must have thought they were on a penalty kill because the Habs players were skating around their zone at will with the puck.

They soon realized they weren’t on the penalty kill… and pressure on Halak and the team’s defense resumed once again.

I’ve been so impressed with a few players in general.

Hal Gill

Again… Gainey took some heat for this signing. From media commentators to fans. I remember PJ Stock on Team 990 talking about Hal Gill being a great locker room guy and how he would fill an important role on this team. I also remember PJ saying that Gill was a shut down man in the playoffs for Pittsburgh’s cup run. PJ took some heat from callers and co-hosts for that.

But Hal Gill has answered the bell. And maybe Gill is made for this time of year somehow. So many times when an attacking Capitals forward would come in Hal would either be positioned to take his man out of the play with his body or he’d be in a spot where he could use his long reach and take the puck away with his stick.

He blocked about a million shots in that series. Really Mr Gill, you played one heck of a series and you deserve a huge word of thanks from this fan.

Josh Gorges

Josh Gorges is still a young defenseman and if we go back a few years the trade in which we acquired him in was scrutinized….. but I guess you can’t make everyone happy as a GM. Sometimes, no one is happy anyways.

Gorges, paired with Gill, has really looked good. Josh keeps doing the simple things. Clearing pucks off the boards to his forwards… always positioning his body against attacking forwards to take them out of the attack.. or not going into a panic when an Ovechkin or a Semin was at him on offense…. panic means the simple plays usually go out the door. But Gorges has really looked good out there.

Gorges is turning into a leader on this team.

Jaroslav Halak
don’t think enough can be said about Halak’s play. Here’s a guy who’s been an underdog before. A 271st 9th round draft pick who’s always believed in himself and how’s never given up. Anyone think he asked Alex if he was nervous while they were shaking hands??

This season his positioning and movement through the crease has been superb. The commentators keep saying it over and over again… and it’s so true.

You’re not gonna score many goals on him if the puck is going low. He extends himself very well to cover the bottom of the net and is quick to jump on the puck.

Something I hear in game commentary that I don’t really agree with. Some of the guys on TSN were saying that he stepped it up, that he knew he had to put the team on his shoulders to win this game seven…etc.

II enjoyed the coverage. I really did. But, I think that Jaro just went to play. Sure he knew he’d have to play a hell of a game…. after all the entire team and coaching staff knew they were facing the league’s best offense with Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals. I just don’t think I’d blow it up that much. He a hard worker. I think he went into the series wanting to do his absolute best. Because I honestly believe that’s how he shows up every game.

Very entertaining series

This was a superb series. And I’m not just saying this because the Habs won, although it does make it special obviously, I’m saying this because in pretty much every game I saw I was on the edge of my seat. Game 4 I only saw a bit of on a wide screen TV while I was playing a gig (playing drums).

PK Subban looked pretty good out there. A couple of times though I will admit he made me a little bit nervous. Once when he tried a little between the legs pass in game 6. You just don’t want to get to cute in the playoffs.

But everytime PK would start skating with the puck from his own end I just thought he’d make it right to Washington’s net everytime. Subban has a great skating stride. He’s fast and mobile on his feet, he can handle and move the puck. He’s got a ton of energy and enthusiasm.

I’m not sure if I’ll be able to sleep…. but I gotta try now.

Go Habs Go!!

Gonna watch the big game tonight??

Please feel free to join the Caps/Habs game 7 live chat and share your thoughts with us online!

After the way the season went with injuries and then the line juggling in the lineup…. the seeming lack of simple coaching moves like taking a time out… I’m almost amazed at how the Canadiens have looked after 6 games against the mighty Washington Capitals.

Coming into this series I had no doubt in my mind that the Capitals could be beaten. I’m not gonna tell you I would have bet on it at the time but I certainly did believe they could be beat.

Washington’s biggest weakness is their defense.

They finished off the season with a 2.77 goals against average which ranked them 16th in the league. While they boast being a powerhouse offensive team you’ll often hear something about winning in the playoffs. Defense.

The New Jersey Devils would choke their opponents not so long ago… the Detroit Red Wings were also masters at controlling the puck.

The Canadiens were not a good defensive team this season. They were right at the bottom at 5 on 5 hockey. They did however spend a huge chunk of the season without key players. Markov, Gionta, Cammalleri, Gill…

The team struggled along and made the playoffs. In these playoffs they pretty much have their lineup as it was projected at the start of the year…. with a few minor tweeks here and there of course. So they’ve finally got their skilled puck moving players running on all gears… they’ve got their defensive players running on all gears. They’ve got a goaltender who’s gained a heck of alot of confidence.

What could this team have accomplished had there been a fraction of the injuries?

The team is playing some defense around the net. It was very frustrating watching teams falling all over Price and Halak this season. Now in these playoffs you’ve had O’Byrne logging some ice along side Markov…. a big physical d-man who is clearing more room in front of Jaro… and one of the greatest puck moving defensemen in the game today in Andrei Markov to move the puck out.

You’ve also got Stanley Cup champion Hal Gill who played a huge role in the Penguins Cup run… as a shut down guy. Hal Gill has been great. He’s used his long reach perfectly, his body is somehow always in the opponent’s way or he chokes up passing and shooting lanes with that long reach.

Josh Gorges, who’s been Gill’s partner in crime, seems to be playing some of the best hockey in his young career as well. What I’ve really enjoyed is how both Gorges and Gill have shown patience, trust in one another and they’ve made simple plays to move the puck out of the zone when needed. You don’t need to do anything fancy to win hockey games. Something I’ve also noticed is that although Gill doesn’t throw huge punishing hits, he uses his big body well enough that he can bump someone off the puck without having to throw the big hit.

You don’t have to kill someone against the boards to get the puck away from them. As long as your team gains possession, that’s all that matters.

So we’re gonna witness a game 7 in a series where most people had written the Habs off early.

Well done guys!

Go Habs Go!

P.K. Subban has been recalled from the Hamilton Bulldogs for this all important game 6 in the first round of the 2010 NHL playoffs.

Habs face elimination tonight against Ovechkin’s Washington Capitals. The game is in Montreal.

The Bell Center will likely exploded with energy. Habs weren’t really expected to win the Capitals but in the course of this series they’ve shown some good things against the Caps… and that the Caps can certainly be beaten.

P.K. Subban has become a fan favorite without barely scratching the ice in Montreal. He’s a great young prospect who’s had an incredible year in Hamilton. Always enthusiastic and upbeat P.K. will certainly bring lot’s of energy in the lineup. I expect that the crowd will show him some love tonight…. think we’ll hear some “PK” chants? I do.

Subban has 18 goals and 35 assists in 77 games with the Hamilton Bulldogs this year. He’s got great skating and puck moving skills and can play a physical game.

In my opinion, the Canadiens have nothing to loose in bringing him up being that they’re down 3 games to 2 and had a sub par performance by MA Bergeron in the last game. Although I don’t think Subban will be the savior for the series I think this is a great opportunity for him to get a taste of the pressure cooker in a Montreal Canadien’s playoff game… facing elimination.

Here’s the official press release!

I came across a blog post that really got me thinking. I’d like to make it a game within a game really.

Unfortunately, I won’t be able to watch the game in it’s entirety this evening. As some of you out there know, I’m a musician and recently started playing a bit more… so it seems as though I’m playing this evening.

Luckily, in the venue where I will be…. I will have a wide screen TV to my right…. and my head shall be turned towards it while I play. Unless perhaps they FAIL to show the Habs game. In which case I’ll play with my eyes shut… (haha).

This blog article over on Berkshire on the Habs. Andrew highlights Rule 69 – Interference on the Goalkeeper in detail…. Now the game within the hockey game I would like to play would be to watch around Price’s net how many times he’s bumped tonight without a call while using Rule 69 as reference.

I notice that on Monday night as soon as Price was in goal that Knuble and friends were tighter in his face then they had been with Halak.

So… this is a simple game… How many times to your estimation does goalie interference occur without a call??

I won’t be able to play this game tonight… but if any of you do… please report back just for the fun of it!!

One recurring theme this season is the constant back and forth from many fans about who they’ve thought can and will prevail in goal for the Montreal Canadiens. While everyone probably has a favorite sometimes this “debate” has gotten ugly.

But the point of this little blog article isn’t really to go there. Instead, I want to once again state something that to me seems quite obvious.

This team won’t get far without playing stronger team defense. Name your goaltender…. even pick names like Roy, Brodeur or Tretiak….

The point is that time and time again this season I’ve seen some “same old” situations. Say like the other night…. on Monday night.

Montreal VS Washington. Game 3. The Habs are pushing hard…. then what happens?? Spacek ends up diving on a play… sliding into Halak… pushing him into his net… the puck goes in. Can’t really fault Halak on that one?

This theme has played itself out all year. You can’t fault either goaltender for alot of those kinds of plays all season long…. and as for a goalie’s confidence… well, if you were in goal and hung out to dry often by your team’s defensive play… you’d probably shrug your shoulders too. I mean, what the hell can you do about it being in goal. You can’t really make defensive hockey plays for your guys and you obviously can’t score any goals to help even up the score. (I’ll get back to team defense in a minute)

Now… game 3… fast forward to Halak getting pulled… and Price comes in.

This very scenario plays out again for the 4th goal of the game. What happens?

MA Bergeron (I believe, correct me if I’m wrong) attemps to clear the puck out of the Habs defensive zone…. it’s picked off… Caps have a couple of guys in close…. Price is left to clean up the mess.

And yet, some people will want to blame him for that goal. What’s up people?

Team defense…. if you speak with alot of coachs…. will be credited for winning games. Maybe even the Stanley Cup.

Now, back to the Canadiens team defense. Something that I have to say is that at times in this series I’ve been impressed. Why have I been impressed? Let’s put it in context.

Washington is the best offensive team in the league. There is not another team that can score goals like they can. Yet, the Habs defensive play at times have managed to shut them down. It can be said that maybe the Caps were just playing bad. But I don’t buy that. It’s happened for several long stretches that the Habs have dominated play. They obviously had a game plan and at times executed that plan to a T.

Gainey was heavily criticized for signing a couple of these guys too…. Spacek and Gill. They’ve played great hockey. Not perfect. But they’ve managed to put their sticks and/or bodies in the way of the likes of Ovechkin and co. Which is no small task.

Seems to me that this really is Hal Gill’s time of year. As I watched game 3, I was really impressed with many small things that he was doing with that long reach of his… and sometimes even though he didn’t crush his opponent with bone breaking hits… he would simply bump them out of position…. which is essentially a sound defensive hockey play. Gill has also taken up alot of real estate in front of his goaltender blocking many shots. Credit him for his strong play in these playoffs. I can see how valuable he was in Pittsburgh for their cup run.

I believe Washington has a game plan against both these guys. Something to watch for when Price is in goal. The Caps forwards will be crashing the crease more. You’ll see bodies falling on him more then you’ll see them falling on Halak. Jacques Martin and co need to find an effective way to clear these guys out.

In my mind there really is no goaltending debate at all. Both of these young guys have shown over the last couple of years that they have the ability to steal a game or 2 or 3. But experience also shows that they cannot be counted upon for a series win or playoff birth. Even back in 1993 when Roy was in the pipes…. the Habs had some other players making waves in that playoff run.

Tonight…. in just a couple of hours The Montreal Canadiens will play game one against the Washington Capitals.

I suppose one could look at an 8th seed team and automatically write them off as they face such a high powered offense in Washington. Not only Washington’s high powered offense, but the once Habs net minder Jose Theodore who’s been playing VERY well the last few months….. his season started with such tragedy and he’s played some very inspired hockey this year.

I was heartbroken for you Jose…. but I’m glad you’ve had a strong season.

Now going back to the Habs. I don’t really “expect” them to win. The Capitals are clearly the more high powered offense and they also have bigger bodies. I would personally say that both these team’s defense are basically a wash. Neither were among the top in goals against this year.

Montreal finished 13th in goals against and Washington at 16th.

Both teams also boast some very talented offensive defensemen in Andrei Markov and Mike Green.

But I believe there is definitely some hope for the Habs!

There are 2 great young goaltenders who in any given game can steal one for you. Now keep in mind that they’d be stealing one against the most high powered team in the league.

I also think that this team is just now… for the most part generally healthy. Mike Cammalleri is back… This is the time of year you want to click. The Habs have won these Capitals…. Tomas Plekanec performs well against these Caps….

The playoffs are always slightly different. You get to play your opponent at least 4 times in a row. This should give your coach a chance to try some things….. I would be changing it up as needed. Really feel out your opponent.

Now something that I’ve seen the Canadiens do this year and I’m not sure if it’s a true coaching strategy….. is sit on a lead. A 1 goal lead? Try to get through the game from about the second period on to win the game? Not a strategy I’m a fan of. Push for the second goal.

This Capitals team is not the team you want to play against trying to sit on a lead….. they will barbecue you, burn you… and throw you out without eating you.

So please, what I’d love to see is a hard fought game. I wouldn’t say “run and gun”…. there’s just no easy way to win this series if you’re the Canadiens. You’re matched up against a strong team.

But, push offensively as the Caps aren’t the strongest defense….. and play hard…. play hard and try to draw penalties.

The power play COULD become an important asset in this series.

Here’s a great blog article over at Lions in Winter on why the Habs could win this series.

Go Habs Go!